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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium plays host to Konyaspor versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Konyaspor (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 6D 0L across 10 games at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.

Fenerbahçe have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Fenerbahçe away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.

A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Konyaspor, 1.80 for Fenerbahçe — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Fenerbahçe hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2025, ended 0–4 with Fenerbahçe winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 63% and Fenerbahçe 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 52% | Fenerbahçe 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.41 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.981 / defence 0.819 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.423 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.110. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.423 — the away xG of 1.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 68 Konyaspor games / 68 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Konyaspor 36% | Draw 33% | Fenerbahçe 31%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Fenerbahçe 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 50% | Fenerbahçe 50%.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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