🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük meet at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.

Current Form

Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Konyaspor's home record at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Fatih Karagümrük have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Fatih Karagümrük's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Konyaspor lead 1W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Konyaspor — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).

Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 68% versus Fatih Karagümrük 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.58 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.851 / defence 0.857 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.743 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.167. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Konyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Konyaspor games / 28 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Konyaspor 55% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 15%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.82 | Draw 3.33 | Fatih Karagümrük 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Konyaspor (55%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights