Konyaspor 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük meet at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 June 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Konyaspor's home record at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu this season.
Fatih Karagümrük have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Fatih Karagümrük in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Konyaspor lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 56% versus Fatih Karagümrük 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 56% | Fatih Karagümrük 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.41 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.815 / defence 0.920 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.245 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.437. Fatih Karagümrük have an above-average attack strength of 1.245 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 72 Konyaspor games / 72 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 33% | Draw 24% | Fatih Karagümrük 43%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | Fatih Karagümrük 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fatih Karagümrük are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 70% | Fatih Karagümrük 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jun 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 33% | Draw 24% | Fatih Karagümrük 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Konyaspor 1.41 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.815 / def 0.920 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.245 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Fatih Karagümrük xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 3 June 2023 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Konyaspor 1 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 33% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (3 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 1 | Fatih Karagümrük 1W.
What form are Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.81) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (1.25x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
33%
3.03
24%
4.19
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
3.06
1.65
Fatih Karagümrük xG
3.03
33%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
19%
5.19
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
6%
15.73
11%
9.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.9 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.65 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 32W 21D 19L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Fatih Karagümrük's form line: 28W 20D 24L from 72 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.44 for Fatih Karagümrük. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.81 PPG from 36 outings (18W 11D 7L).
On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 12W 10D 14L from 36 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.64 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Current Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 32W 21D 19L in their last 72 games (1.62 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 28W 20D 24L in their last 72 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.81 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 1-4 on 11 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
4
Draws
2
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Konyaspor 3-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 50%, Fatih Karagümrük 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Konyaspor) and 67% (Fatih Karagümrük). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 56% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Konyaspor's matches and 67% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük finished level at 1-1 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.41 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.65 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.81 / defence 0.92 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.25 / defence 1.08, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 33% | Draw 24% | Fatih Karagümrük 43%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 56%, Fatih Karagümrük 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.62 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.