Konyaspor 1-2 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük meet at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Konyaspor's home record at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Fatih Karagümrük have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Konyaspor lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 4–1 with Konyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 56% versus Fatih Karagümrük 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 56% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 2.15 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 1.234 / defence 0.900 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.678 / defence 1.424. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.238. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.424 — this is suppressing Konyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Konyaspor games / 34 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 68% | Draw 21% | Fatih Karagümrük 11%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.47 | Draw 4.76 | Fatih Karagümrük 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Konyaspor (68%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 20% | Fatih Karagümrük 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 68% | Draw 21% | Fatih Karagümrük 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 48% | xG Konyaspor 2.15 / Fatih Karagümrük 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 1.234 / def 0.900 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.678 / def 1.424 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Fatih Karagümrük xG
48%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Konyaspor 1 - 2 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 68% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 11% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (1 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Fatih Karagümrük 0W.
What form are Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (1.23) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 2.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.68x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 1-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
68%
1.47
21%
4.72
11%
9.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.91
0.76
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
9.44
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
12%
8.58
Win to Nil
32%
3.12
1%
81.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.76 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 19W 7D 8L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Fatih Karagümrük's form line: 14W 8D 12L from 34 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Konyaspor are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fatih Karagümrük.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 2.35 PPG from 17 outings (12W 4D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.88 PPG overall — Konyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 5W 3D 9L from 17 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fatih Karagümrük's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.24 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Current Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 19W 7D 8L in their last 34 games (1.88 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 14W 8D 12L in their last 34 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Konyaspor's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 2.35 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 1-4 on 11 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
4
Draws
2
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Konyaspor 3-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 41%, Fatih Karagümrük 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Konyaspor) and 59% (Fatih Karagümrük).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 47% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Konyaspor's recent games and 59% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fatih Karagümrük defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Konyaspor 1-2 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 2.15 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.76 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Konyaspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Fatih Karagümrük outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.23 / defence 0.90 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.68 / defence 1.42, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 68% | Draw 21% | Fatih Karagümrük 11%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Fatih Karagümrük win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 56%, Fatih Karagümrük 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.47. Form was overturned, with Fatih Karagümrük winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.