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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 18 as Konyaspor welcome Eyüpspor to Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 19 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 2W 3D 5L at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Eyüpspor stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Eyüpspor have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Konyaspor) versus 0.80 (Eyüpspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Konyaspor have won 2, Eyüpspor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 4–1 with Konyaspor winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 64% versus Eyüpspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 53% | Eyüpspor 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.27 xG and Eyüpspor 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.906 / defence 1.059 | Eyüpspor attack 0.680 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.296. Data: 53 Konyaspor games / 53 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Konyaspor 40% | Draw 36% | Eyüpspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.50 | Draw 2.78 | Eyüpspor 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 70% | Eyüpspor 30%.

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