Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours Beşiktaş (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Konyaspor face Beşiktaş.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Konyaspor and Beşiktaş meet at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Current Form

Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 4W 3D 3L at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Beşiktaş have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Beşiktaş arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

Across the last 10 meetings, Beşiktaş have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Konyaspor's 2, with 2 draws in the mix.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Beşiktaş winning.

It is worth noting that Beşiktaş have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Beşiktaş half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 63% and Beşiktaş 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 55% | Beşiktaş 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.07 xG and Beşiktaş 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.817 / defence 1.047 | Beşiktaş attack 0.928 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.243. Data: 37 Konyaspor games / 37 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Konyaspor 32% | Draw 28% | Beşiktaş 39%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Beşiktaş 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 40% | Beşiktaş 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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