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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Konyaspor and Beşiktaş meet at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 November 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Current Form

Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Konyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 4W 5D 1L at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Beşiktaş have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Beşiktaş haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Across the last 10 meetings, Beşiktaş have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Konyaspor's 2, with 2 draws in the mix.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Beşiktaş winning.

It is worth noting that Beşiktaş have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Beşiktaş half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 65% and Beşiktaş 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 56% | Beşiktaş 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.31 xG and Beşiktaş 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.926 / defence 0.966 | Beşiktaş attack 1.132 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Konyaspor games / 34 Beşiktaş games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Konyaspor 36% | Draw 31% | Beşiktaş 33%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Beşiktaş 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 50% | Beşiktaş 50%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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