Konyaspor 1-0 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Konyaspor and Beşiktaş meet at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Monday 27 December 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 6W 3D 0L at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu — 2.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Beşiktaş have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 1W 3D 4L from 8 away outings — 0.75 PPG. Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Konyaspor's 2.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Beşiktaş's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 56% versus Beşiktaş 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 50% | Beşiktaş 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.46 xG and Beşiktaş 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 1.001 / defence 0.875 | Beşiktaş attack 0.832 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.125. Beşiktaş bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Konyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Konyaspor games / 18 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 51% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 20%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Beşiktaş 5.00. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 56% | Beşiktaş 62%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 27 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 51% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Konyaspor 1.46 / Beşiktaş 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 1.001 / def 0.875 | Beşiktaş attack 0.832 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Beşiktaş xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 27 December 2021 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Konyaspor 1 - 0 Beşiktaş.
Where is Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 51% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Konyaspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Beşiktaş?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Konyaspor and Beşiktaş in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 1.00x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (0.83x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
51%
1.97
30%
3.38
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.27
0.82
Beşiktaş xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
5%
21.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.3 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.82 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 10W 6D 2L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş's form line: 8W 4D 6L from 18 games, 1.56 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Konyaspor are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Beşiktaş.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 2.25 PPG from 8 outings (5W 3D 0L).
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 1W 3D 4L from 8 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beşiktaş's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.67 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş in 61%.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 10W 6D 2L in their last 18 games (2.00 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 8W 4D 6L in their last 18 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Konyaspor's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 2.25 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Beşiktaş have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
2
Draws
6
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Beşiktaş 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 50%, Beşiktaş 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Konyaspor) and 50% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Beşiktaş in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Konyaspor's games and 62% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Konyaspor's recent games and 50% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Beşiktaş 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Beşiktaş 1-0 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.46 xG and Beşiktaş 0.82 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Beşiktaş landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.00 / defence 0.88 against Beşiktaş attack 0.83 / defence 1.26, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 51% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 20%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 50%, Beşiktaş 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.56. Form held, and they took the win. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.