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Shock result as Konyaspor defy the odds to beat Beşiktaş 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Konyaspor beat Beşiktaş 1-0 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.15 xG and Beşiktaş 1.44 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Beşiktaş landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.95 / defence 1.08 against Beşiktaş attack 1.13 / defence 0.73, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 30% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 43%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Konyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 43%, Beşiktaş 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Konyaspor's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Beşiktaş's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Konyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Konyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights