Konyaspor 2-1 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 41%, yet in-form Konyaspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Konyaspor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Konyaspor host Başakşehir at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 August 2021 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 1W 0D 0L from 1 Süper Lig matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Başakşehir — All Games: 0W 0D 1L from 1 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 3.00 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Konyaspor's 0% and Başakşehir's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 0.85 xG and Başakşehir 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.977 / defence 1.150 | Başakşehir attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.759 / away 1.254. Data: 1 Konyaspor games / 1 Başakşehir games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 22% | Draw 37% | Başakşehir 41%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 4.55 | Draw 2.70 | Başakşehir 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Konyaspor (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 22% | Draw 37% | Başakşehir 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Konyaspor 0.85 / Başakşehir 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.977 / def 1.150 | Başakşehir attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.759 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Başakşehir xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Konyaspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 17:15 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Konyaspor 2 - 1 Başakşehir.
Where is Konyaspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Konyaspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 22% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 41% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Konyaspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Başakşehir?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Konyaspor and Başakşehir in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. Başakşehir (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Konyaspor's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
22%
4.58
37%
2.68
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.08
1.23
Başakşehir xG
4.58
22%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
6%
15.62
17%
5.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 15.3 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.23 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Başakşehir's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Konyaspor are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Başakşehir.
The Goals Picture
Konyaspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Başakşehir in 0%.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Early Season
Başakşehir
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Konyaspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Konyaspor and Başakşehir runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Konyaspor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Konyaspor
1
Draws
5
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 4, Başakşehir have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Başakşehir 2-0 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 0% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Konyaspor's recent games and 0% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Konyaspor defy the odds to beat Başakşehir 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Başakşehir 2-1 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 0.85 xG and Başakşehir 1.23 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Konyaspor beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Başakşehir attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 22% | Draw 37% | Başakşehir 41%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Konyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 0%, Başakşehir 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Konyaspor scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.