Konyaspor 1-1 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Konyaspor and Antalyaspor meet at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 April 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Konyaspor have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Antalyaspor have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Konyaspor, 1.20 for Antalyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Konyaspor, 1 for Antalyaspor and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 56% versus Antalyaspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 54% | Antalyaspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.18 xG and Antalyaspor 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.746 / defence 0.863 | Antalyaspor attack 0.686 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.324. Konyaspor's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Konyaspor games / 63 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 45% | Draw 30% | Antalyaspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Antalyaspor 4.17. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 50% | Antalyaspor 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 7 Apr 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 45% | Draw 30% | Antalyaspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Konyaspor 1.18 / Antalyaspor 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.746 / def 0.863 | Antalyaspor attack 0.686 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Antalyaspor xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 7 April 2023 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Konyaspor 1 - 1 Antalyaspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 45% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Konyaspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Antalyaspor?
Record (3 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 1W.
What form are Konyaspor and Antalyaspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.75x the league average against Antalyaspor's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.69x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
45%
2.21
30%
3.29
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
1.96
0.78
Antalyaspor xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
8%
13.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 11.0 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.78 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Konyaspor come into this having played 63 games, going 27W 19D 17L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-D. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.38 PPG from 63 outings (24W 15D 24L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.38 for Antalyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Konyaspor's home form reads 16W 9D 6L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 1.00 points per game from 31 outings (8W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.37 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 27W 19D 17L in their last 63 games (1.59 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 24W 15D 24L in their last 63 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.84 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
6
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 2, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Antalyaspor 0-2 Konyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 42%, Antalyaspor 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Konyaspor) and 45% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 42% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Konyaspor's recent games and 45% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor and Antalyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor and Antalyaspor finished level at 1-1 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.18 xG and Antalyaspor 0.78 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.75 / defence 0.86 against Antalyaspor attack 0.69 / defence 0.96, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 45% | Draw 30% | Antalyaspor 24%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 54%, Antalyaspor 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.59 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.