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Stalemate at Konyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Konyaspor and Antalyaspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.38 xG and Antalyaspor 1.44 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Konyaspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Antalyaspor landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.06 / defence 1.23 against Antalyaspor attack 0.88 / defence 1.01, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 34% | Draw 30% | Antalyaspor 36%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 54%, Antalyaspor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Konyaspor's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Antalyaspor's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.25 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights