Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.91x the league average against Antalyaspor's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.91x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
49%
2.06
28%
3.62
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.76
1.11
Antalyaspor xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
5%
21.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.6 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.11 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.