Konyaspor 0-1 Ankaragücü – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 20 as Konyaspor welcome Ankaragücü to Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Monday 23 January 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 1W 7D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Ankaragücü — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ankaragücü, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ankaragücü have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Konyaspor at 1.00 PPG versus Ankaragücü's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Konyaspor, 0 for Ankaragücü and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Konyaspor trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Ankaragücü trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 56% and Ankaragücü 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 44% | Ankaragücü 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.44 xG and Ankaragücü 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.861 / defence 0.985 | Ankaragücü attack 0.862 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 1.381. Data: 56 Konyaspor games / 18 Ankaragücü games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 42% | Draw 28% | Ankaragücü 30%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Ankaragücü 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 50% | Ankaragücü 78% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 23 Jan 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 42% | Draw 28% | Ankaragücü 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Konyaspor 1.44 / Ankaragücü 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.861 / def 0.985 | Ankaragücü attack 0.862 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.607 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Ankaragücü xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü kick off?
Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 23 January 2023 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü?
Konyaspor 0 - 1 Ankaragücü.
Where is Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü part of?
Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 42% chance of winning, Ankaragücü a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Konyaspor and Ankaragücü will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Ankaragücü?
Record (1 meetings): Konyaspor 0W | Draws 1 | Ankaragücü 0W.
What form are Konyaspor and Ankaragücü in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Ankaragücü (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.86x the league average against Ankaragücü's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ankaragücü's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
42%
2.36
28%
3.61
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.61
1.17
Ankaragücü xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
7%
14.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.4 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Ankaragücü expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.17 for Ankaragücü, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 6W 9D 3L from 18 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ankaragücü, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 9L across 18 games — 1.06 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Ankaragücü is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Konyaspor by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ankaragücü heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 3W 4D 2L from 9 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ankaragücü's away record stands at 2W 2D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Konyaspor are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Ankaragücü are on 1.28 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü in 78%.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Ankaragücü
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Ankaragücü in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 6W 9D 3L in their last 18 games (1.50 PPG), while Ankaragücü have gone 5W 4D 9L in their last 18 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Ankaragücü away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.44 PPG; Ankaragücü away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Ankaragücü been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Ankaragücü in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Konyaspor's record when hosting Ankaragücü specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Konyaspor
2
Draws
1
Ankaragücü
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Ankaragücü?
From 4 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 1, Ankaragücü have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Ankaragücü last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when Konyaspor 1-0 Ankaragücü.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ankaragücü see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 44%, Ankaragücü 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Konyaspor) and 56% (Ankaragücü).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Ankaragücü away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Ankaragücü?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Konyaspor's games and 78% of Ankaragücü's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Ankaragücü usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Konyaspor's recent games and 56% of Ankaragücü's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Ankaragücü defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ankaragücü beat Konyaspor 0-1 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.44 xG and Ankaragücü 1.17 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Konyaspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.86 / defence 0.98 against Ankaragücü attack 0.86 / defence 1.04, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 42% | Draw 28% | Ankaragücü 30%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Ankaragücü win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 44%, Ankaragücü 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Ankaragücü's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Ankaragücü winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Ankaragücü (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.