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Konyaspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Adana Demirspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Konyaspor beat Adana Demirspor 3-1 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 2.34 xG and Adana Demirspor 0.88 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.90 / defence 0.82 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.62, drawn from 69/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 70% | Draw 18% | Adana Demirspor 12%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 41%, Adana Demirspor 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Konyaspor's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Adana Demirspor's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.18 PPG, Adana Demirspor 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights