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Prediction vindicated as Samsunspor edge out Kocaelispor 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Samsunspor beat Kocaelispor 0-1 at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kocaelispor 1.25 xG and Samsunspor 1.51 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kocaelispor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kocaelispor attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Samsunspor attack 0.96 / defence 0.94, drawn from 1/37 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kocaelispor 32% | Draw 25% | Samsunspor 43%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kocaelispor 0%, Samsunspor 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Samsunspor managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights