🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Kocaelispor and Rizespor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, as Kocaelispor and Rizespor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kocaelispor 1.01 xG and Rizespor 1.18 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kocaelispor attack 0.74 / defence 1.08 against Rizespor attack 0.91 / defence 1.05, drawn from 5/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kocaelispor 30% | Draw 32% | Rizespor 38%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kocaelispor 20%, Rizespor 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kocaelispor's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Rizespor's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Rizespor arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights