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Stalemate at Kocaelispor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kocaelispor and Kasımpaşa finished level at 0-0 at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kocaelispor 1.22 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.87 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kocaelispor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Kasımpaşa landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kocaelispor attack 0.85 / defence 0.69 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.95 / defence 1.12, drawn from 14/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kocaelispor 41% | Draw 36% | Kasımpaşa 23%, with Kocaelispor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kocaelispor 21%, Kasımpaşa 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kocaelispor's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kocaelispor 1.29 PPG, Kasımpaşa 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights