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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Kocaelispor take on Gaziantep FK.

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Full Analysis

Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu plays host to Kocaelispor versus Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 15 February 2026 at 11:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Kocaelispor have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Kocaelispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Kocaelispor at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu.

Gaziantep FK (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Kocaelispor's favour (1.60 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Kocaelispor 0W, Gaziantep FK 1W, 0D.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Gaziantep FK winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Kocaelispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Gaziantep FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kocaelispor 43% versus Gaziantep FK 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kocaelispor 29% | Gaziantep FK 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kocaelispor 1.07 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kocaelispor attack 0.735 / defence 0.864 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.981 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.327. Kocaelispor's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Kocaelispor games / 57 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Kocaelispor 30% | Draw 37% | Gaziantep FK 33%. Fair-value odds: Kocaelispor 3.33 | Draw 2.70 | Gaziantep FK 3.03. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kocaelispor 40% | Gaziantep FK 60%.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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