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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kocaelispor and Göztepe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kocaelispor and Göztepe finished level at 1-1 at Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kocaelispor 0.88 xG and Göztepe 0.96 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kocaelispor attack 0.72 / defence 0.86 against Göztepe attack 0.92 / defence 0.88, drawn from 29/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kocaelispor 29% | Draw 39% | Göztepe 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kocaelispor 31%, Göztepe 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kocaelispor's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Göztepe's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights