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Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Kocaelispor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Kocaelispor 0-2 at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kocaelispor 0.99 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.68 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Kocaelispor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kocaelispor attack 0.82 / defence 0.84 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.54 / defence 0.92, drawn from 19/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kocaelispor 19% | Draw 31% | Fenerbahçe 50%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kocaelispor 26%, Fenerbahçe 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kocaelispor's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights