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Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Kocaelispor 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beşiktaş beat Kocaelispor 0-1 at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kocaelispor 1.25 xG and Beşiktaş 1.41 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kocaelispor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kocaelispor attack 0.88 / defence 0.82 against Beşiktaş attack 1.34 / defence 1.03, drawn from 23/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kocaelispor 30% | Draw 33% | Beşiktaş 37%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kocaelispor 30%, Beşiktaş 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kocaelispor's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Beşiktaş's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights