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Stalemate at Kocaelispor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kocaelispor and Başakşehir finished level at 0-0 at Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kocaelispor 1.00 xG and Başakşehir 1.33 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kocaelispor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Başakşehir landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kocaelispor attack 0.79 / defence 0.97 against Başakşehir attack 1.20 / defence 0.92, drawn from 27/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kocaelispor 25% | Draw 33% | Başakşehir 42%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kocaelispor 33%, Başakşehir 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kocaelispor's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Başakşehir's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kocaelispor 1.22 PPG, Başakşehir 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights