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Prediction vindicated as Kocaelispor edge out Antalyaspor 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kocaelispor beat Antalyaspor 2-1 at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kocaelispor 0.81 xG and Antalyaspor 0.63 xG, a combined 1.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Kocaelispor beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kocaelispor attack 0.76 / defence 0.65 against Antalyaspor attack 0.74 / defence 0.84, drawn from 16/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kocaelispor 33% | Draw 45% | Antalyaspor 22%, with the draw its most likely call at 45%. The actual Kocaelispor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kocaelispor 19%, Antalyaspor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kocaelispor's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Antalyaspor's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kocaelispor 1.25 PPG, Antalyaspor 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kocaelispor win broke the near-deadlock. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights