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Kocaelispor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Alanyaspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kocaelispor beat Alanyaspor 2-0 at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kocaelispor 1.09 xG and Alanyaspor 1.30 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Kocaelispor beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alanyaspor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kocaelispor attack 0.74 / defence 0.92 against Alanyaspor attack 1.09 / defence 1.11, drawn from 9/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kocaelispor 28% | Draw 33% | Alanyaspor 39%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Kocaelispor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kocaelispor 33%, Alanyaspor 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kocaelispor's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Alanyaspor's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Kocaelispor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights