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Poisson model favours Trabzonspor (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kayserispor face Trabzonspor.

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Match Analysis

Kayserispor host Trabzonspor at Kadir Has Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 9 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Kayserispor — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Kadir Has Stadium, Kayserispor have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Trabzonspor are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Trabzonspor, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Kayserispor.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 0–4 with Trabzonspor winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Trabzonspor have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

Kayserispor in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 50% versus Trabzonspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 48% | Trabzonspor 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.03 xG and Trabzonspor 2.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.788 / defence 1.291 | Trabzonspor attack 1.385 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.227. Kayserispor's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.385 — the away xG of 2.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Kayserispor games / 60 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Kayserispor 14% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 61%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 7.14 | Draw 4.00 | Trabzonspor 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.03 / 2.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 50% | Trabzonspor 80% BTTS from recent games.

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