Kayserispor 4-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kayserispor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kayserispor host Sivasspor at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 January 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kayserispor stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Kayserispor are significantly better at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Sivasspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kayserispor at 1.10 PPG versus Sivasspor's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kayserispor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sivasspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Kayserispor have won 1, Sivasspor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 1–2 with Sivasspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kayserispor trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Sivasspor trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kayserispor 60% and Sivasspor 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 60% | Sivasspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.52 xG and Sivasspor 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 1.011 / defence 1.164 | Sivasspor attack 0.984 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.356. Data: 55 Kayserispor games / 55 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 37% | Draw 25% | Sivasspor 38%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Sivasspor 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sivasspor as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 60% | Sivasspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 13 Jan 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 37% | Draw 25% | Sivasspor 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Kayserispor 1.52 / Sivasspor 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 1.011 / def 1.164 | Sivasspor attack 0.984 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Sivasspor xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 13 January 2023 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Sivasspor?
Kayserispor 4 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Sivasspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 37% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Kayserispor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Sivasspor?
Record (2 meetings): Kayserispor 1W | Draws 0 | Sivasspor 1W.
What form are Kayserispor and Sivasspor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kayserispor's attack at 1.01x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
37%
2.73
25%
3.96
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
3.07
1.55
Sivasspor xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
8%
12.92
8%
11.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.55 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Kayserispor have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 19W 13D 23L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor's form line: 17W 18D 20L from 55 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kayserispor on 1.27 PPG, Sivasspor on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kayserispor have posted 1.74 PPG from 27 outings (14W 5D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Kayserispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 9W 5D 13L from 27 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kayserispor are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.27 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kayserispor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Sivasspor in 64%.
Last 55 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 19W 13D 23L in their last 55 games (1.27 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 17W 18D 20L in their last 55 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Sivasspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.74 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kayserispor and Sivasspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sivasspor go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Dec 2021, when Kayserispor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kayserispor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Kayserispor
1
Draws
5
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 2, Sivasspor have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Sivasspor 5-2 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 56%, Sivasspor 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Kayserispor and 59% for Sivasspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Kayserispor's games and 63% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kayserispor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Kayserispor's matches and 59% of Sivasspor's.
Do Kayserispor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kayserispor run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Sivasspor 4-1 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.52 xG and Sivasspor 1.55 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Kayserispor beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.01 / defence 1.16 against Sivasspor attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 37% | Draw 25% | Sivasspor 38%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Kayserispor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 60%, Sivasspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.27 PPG, Sivasspor 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.