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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Samsunspor cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kayserispor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Samsunspor beat Kayserispor 1-3 at Kadir Has Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.07 xG and Samsunspor 1.74 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Samsunspor outscored their 1.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.85 / defence 1.27 against Samsunspor attack 1.04 / defence 0.95, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 21% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 51%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 48%, Samsunspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kayserispor's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Samsunspor's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kayserispor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Samsunspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights