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Prediction vindicated as Samsunspor edge out Kayserispor 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Samsunspor beat Kayserispor 0-1 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.33 xG and Samsunspor 1.92 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kayserispor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Samsunspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.91 / defence 1.50 against Samsunspor attack 1.05 / defence 0.91, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 25% | Draw 26% | Samsunspor 49%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 53%, Samsunspor 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kayserispor's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Samsunspor's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.11 PPG, Samsunspor 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Samsunspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights