Kayserispor 3-1 Ümraniyespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kayserispor at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kayserispor vs Ümraniyespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu plays host to Kayserispor versus Ümraniyespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Monday 10 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor's home record at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu this season.
Ümraniyespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ümraniyespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ümraniyespor away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Kayserispor. A 0.60 PPG lead over Ümraniyespor (1.80 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Kayserispor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Ümraniyespor in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kayserispor lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Kayserispor — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Ümraniyespor — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kayserispor 54% and Ümraniyespor 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Kayserispor 69% | Ümraniyespor 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.80 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 1.042 / defence 0.985 | Ümraniyespor attack 1.041 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.305. Data: 64 Kayserispor games / 26 Ümraniyespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 48% | Draw 23% | Ümraniyespor 29%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Ümraniyespor 3.45. Kayserispor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kayserispor at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kayserispor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 70% | Ümraniyespor 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Ümraniyespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 48% | Draw 23% | Ümraniyespor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Kayserispor 1.80 / Ümraniyespor 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 1.042 / def 0.985 | Ümraniyespor attack 1.041 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Ümraniyespor xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Ümraniyespor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Ümraniyespor kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Ümraniyespor?
Kayserispor 3 - 1 Ümraniyespor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Ümraniyespor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Ümraniyespor part of?
Kayserispor vs Ümraniyespor is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 48% chance of winning, Ümraniyespor a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Kayserispor and Ümraniyespor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Ümraniyespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Ümraniyespor?
Record (1 meetings): Kayserispor 0W | Draws 1 | Ümraniyespor 0W.
What form are Kayserispor and Ümraniyespor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Ümraniyespor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kayserispor's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Ümraniyespor's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — Ümraniyespor's attack (1.04x) against Kayserispor's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 64/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
48%
2.07
23%
4.34
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
3.13
1.34
Ümraniyespor xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
5%
21.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Ümraniyespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.34 for Ümraniyespor, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Ümraniyespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 26 outings, Kayserispor have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 13W 2D 11L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ümraniyespor's form line: 5W 8D 13L from 26 games, 0.88 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Ümraniyespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Kayserispor are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ümraniyespor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Kayserispor have posted 1.58 PPG from 12 outings (6W 1D 5L).
On the road, Ümraniyespor have gone 3W 4D 5L from 12 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kayserispor are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Ümraniyespor are on 1.35 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ümraniyespor in 69%.
Last 26 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Ümraniyespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Ümraniyespor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 13W 2D 11L in their last 26 games (1.58 PPG), while Ümraniyespor have gone 5W 8D 13L in their last 26 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Ümraniyespor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.58 PPG; Ümraniyespor away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Kayserispor
1
Draws
0
Ümraniyespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Ümraniyespor?
From 2 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 1, Ümraniyespor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Ümraniyespor last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2023, when Kayserispor 3-1 Ümraniyespor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Ümraniyespor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Ümraniyespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 58% for Kayserispor, 75% for Ümraniyespor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Kayserispor and 58% for Ümraniyespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Ümraniyespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Ümraniyespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Kayserispor's games and 75% of Ümraniyespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kayserispor vs Ümraniyespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Kayserispor's matches and 58% of Ümraniyespor's.
Do Kayserispor and Ümraniyespor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Ümraniyespor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kayserispor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ümraniyespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Ümraniyespor 3-1 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.80 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.34 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kayserispor beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.04 / defence 0.98 against Ümraniyespor attack 1.04 / defence 1.03, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 48% | Draw 23% | Ümraniyespor 29%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 69%, Ümraniyespor 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Ümraniyespor's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kayserispor arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. Kayserispor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Ümraniyespor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.