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Shock result as Kayserispor defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kayserispor beat Konyaspor 2-1 at RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.23 xG and Konyaspor 1.57 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.74 / defence 1.24 against Konyaspor attack 1.12 / defence 1.09, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 27% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 42%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Kayserispor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 49%, Konyaspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kayserispor's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Konyaspor's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.04 PPG, Konyaspor 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights