🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Kayserispor defy the odds to beat Kasımpaşa 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kayserispor beat Kasımpaşa 3-2 at Kadir Has Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.08 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.41 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Kayserispor beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.87 / defence 1.35 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.80 / defence 0.97, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 26% | Draw 32% | Kasımpaşa 42%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Kayserispor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 50%, Kasımpaşa 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kayserispor's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.11 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights