Kayserispor 4-3 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kayserispor vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kayserispor and Hatayspor meet at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Friday 4 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Kayserispor are significantly better at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Hatayspor (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Kayserispor's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Hatayspor's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Kayserispor have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Hatayspor in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kayserispor lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Hatayspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Kayserispor — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Hatayspor — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 52% versus Hatayspor 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 48% | Hatayspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.79 xG and Hatayspor 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.980 / defence 0.757 | Hatayspor attack 0.722 / defence 1.585. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.091. Hatayspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.585 — this is suppressing Kayserispor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Kayserispor's defence rating of 0.757 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 23 Kayserispor games / 23 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 65% | Draw 23% | Hatayspor 11%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 1.54 | Draw 4.35 | Hatayspor 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Kayserispor (65%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kayserispor are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 30% | Hatayspor 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Kadir Has Şehir Stadı • Kick-off: Friday 4 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 65% | Draw 23% | Hatayspor 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 38% | xG Kayserispor 1.79 / Hatayspor 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.980 / def 0.757 | Hatayspor attack 0.722 / def 1.585 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Hatayspor xG
38%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 4 February 2022 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Hatayspor?
Kayserispor 4 - 3 Hatayspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Hatayspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 65% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 11% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Kayserispor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Hatayspor?
Record (1 meetings): Kayserispor 0W | Draws 0 | Hatayspor 1W.
What form are Kayserispor and Hatayspor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kayserispor's attack rating (0.98) and Hatayspor's defence rating (1.58), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.72x) against Kayserispor's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.60.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
65%
1.53
23%
4.26
11%
9.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.38
0.60
Hatayspor xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
9.04
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
55%
1.81
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
36%
2.77
2%
53.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 9.8 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.7 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Kayserispor and 0.60 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Hatayspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Kayserispor have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 8W 7D 8L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hatayspor's form line: 11W 3D 9L from 23 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Kayserispor against 1.57 for Hatayspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Kayserispor have posted 2.18 PPG from 11 outings (7W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Kayserispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 5W 1D 5L from 11 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kayserispor are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.39 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 8W 7D 8L in their last 23 games (1.35 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 11W 3D 9L in their last 23 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Hatayspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 2.18 PPG; Hatayspor away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Kayserispor or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Kayserispor have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kayserispor won 5-0 on 28 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Kayserispor
1
Draws
1
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 6, Hatayspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2025, when Kayserispor 5-0 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Hatayspor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 36% (Kayserispor) and 27% (Hatayspor) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Kayserispor) and 36% (Hatayspor).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; Hatayspor in 36%; Hatayspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 27% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kayserispor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Kayserispor's recent games and 36% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kayserispor edge out Hatayspor 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Hatayspor 4-3 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.79 xG and Hatayspor 0.60 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Kayserispor beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hatayspor outscored their 0.60 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.98 / defence 0.76 against Hatayspor attack 0.72 / defence 1.58, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 65% | Draw 23% | Hatayspor 11%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 48%, Hatayspor 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Hatayspor's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.35 PPG, Hatayspor 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.