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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kayserispor and Gençlerbirliği S.K. share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kayserispor and Gençlerbirliği S.K. finished level at 1-1 at Kadir Has Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.30 xG and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.19 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.86 / defence 1.35 against Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.69 / defence 1.15, drawn from 42/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 37% | Draw 31% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 32%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 33%, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kayserispor's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kayserispor 0.67 PPG, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights