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Dominant Gaziantep FK run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Kayserispor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gaziantep FK beat Kayserispor 0-3 at Kadir Has Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.24 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.64 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Kayserispor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Gaziantep FK outscored their 1.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.02 / defence 1.36 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.94 / defence 0.94, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 27% | Draw 28% | Gaziantep FK 45%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 52%, Gaziantep FK 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kayserispor's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.12 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gaziantep FK win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights