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Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Kayserispor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Kayserispor 0-4 at RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.05 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.03 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Kayserispor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Fenerbahçe outscored their 2.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.75 / defence 1.25 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.41 / defence 0.98, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 17% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 58%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 48%, Fenerbahçe 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kayserispor's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.06. Form held, and they took the win. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights