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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Kadir Has Stadium plays host to Kayserispor versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Thursday 19 March 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Kayserispor have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Kayserispor at Kadir Has Stadium this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

Fatih Karagümrük's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Fatih Karagümrük hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fatih Karagümrük have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading & In-Play

Kayserispor — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 54% versus Fatih Karagümrük 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.47 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.781 / defence 1.368 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.822 / defence 1.398. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.194. Kayserispor's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.47 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.398 — this is suppressing Kayserispor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Kayserispor games / 26 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Kayserispor 37% | Draw 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 32%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Fatih Karagümrük 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Kayserispor are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kayserispor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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