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Kayserispor and Eyüpspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, as Kayserispor and Eyüpspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.21 xG and Eyüpspor 1.20 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.75 / defence 1.28 against Eyüpspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 33% | Draw 34% | Eyüpspor 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 49%, Eyüpspor 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kayserispor's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Eyüpspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.06 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights