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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Kayserispor take on Eyüpspor.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Eyüpspor travel to RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu to take on Kayserispor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 May 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Kayserispor stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

At home at RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu, Kayserispor have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Eyüpspor have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Eyüpspor's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Kayserispor) versus 1.00 (Eyüpspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Kayserispor, 0 for Eyüpspor and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Kayserispor in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 48% versus Eyüpspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 49% | Eyüpspor 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.21 xG and Eyüpspor 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.750 / defence 1.278 | Eyüpspor attack 0.834 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.128. Kayserispor's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 67 Kayserispor games / 67 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Kayserispor 33% | Draw 34% | Eyüpspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Eyüpspor 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Kayserispor 30% | Eyüpspor 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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