Kayserispor 1-1 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Kayserispor take on Eyüpspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Eyüpspor travel to RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu to take on Kayserispor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 May 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kayserispor stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu, Kayserispor have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Eyüpspor have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Eyüpspor's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Kayserispor) versus 1.00 (Eyüpspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Kayserispor, 0 for Eyüpspor and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Kayserispor in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 48% versus Eyüpspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 49% | Eyüpspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.21 xG and Eyüpspor 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.750 / defence 1.278 | Eyüpspor attack 0.834 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.128. Kayserispor's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 67 Kayserispor games / 67 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 33% | Draw 34% | Eyüpspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Eyüpspor 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Kayserispor 30% | Eyüpspor 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 33% | Draw 34% | Eyüpspor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG Kayserispor 1.21 / Eyüpspor 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.750 / def 1.278 | Eyüpspor attack 0.834 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Eyüpspor xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor?
Kayserispor 1 - 1 Eyüpspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 33% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Kayserispor and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Eyüpspor?
Record (3 meetings): Kayserispor 0W | Draws 3 | Eyüpspor 0W.
What form are Kayserispor and Eyüpspor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Eyüpspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kayserispor's attack at 0.75x the league average against Eyüpspor's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.03
34%
2.91
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.41
1.20
Eyüpspor xG
3.03
33%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
10%
10.08
10%
10.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.20 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kayserispor come into this having played 67 games, going 16W 23D 28L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Eyüpspor sit at 1.21 PPG from 67 outings (22W 15D 30L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kayserispor on 1.06 PPG, Eyüpspor on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kayserispor's home form reads 12W 8D 13L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Eyüpspor have taken 0.97 points per game from 33 outings (8W 8D 17L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kayserispor are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.15 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Current Season
Eyüpspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 16W 23D 28L in their last 67 games (1.06 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 22W 15D 30L in their last 67 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Eyüpspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.33 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Kayserispor's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Kayserispor
4
Draws
0
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Eyüpspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 0, Eyüpspor have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Kayserispor 1-1 Eyüpspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 46%, Eyüpspor 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Kayserispor) and 46% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kayserispor have failed to score in 30% of games; Eyüpspor in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 48% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kayserispor vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Kayserispor's recent games and 46% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kayserispor and Eyüpspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, as Kayserispor and Eyüpspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.21 xG and Eyüpspor 1.20 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.75 / defence 1.28 against Eyüpspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 33% | Draw 34% | Eyüpspor 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 49%, Eyüpspor 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.06 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.