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Dominant Beşiktaş run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Kayserispor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beşiktaş beat Kayserispor 0-4 at Kadir Has Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.49 xG and Beşiktaş 1.14 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Kayserispor fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Beşiktaş outscored their 1.14 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.98 / defence 1.11 against Beşiktaş attack 0.86 / defence 1.15, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 43% | Draw 31% | Beşiktaş 26%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Beşiktaş win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 45%, Beşiktaş 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kayserispor's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Beşiktaş's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights