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Shock result as Kayserispor defy the odds to beat Antalyaspor 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kayserispor beat Antalyaspor 1-0 at Kadir Has Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 0.88 xG and Antalyaspor 1.15 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Antalyaspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.75 / defence 1.37 against Antalyaspor attack 0.64 / defence 0.85, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 24% | Draw 38% | Antalyaspor 38%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a Kayserispor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 50%, Antalyaspor 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kayserispor's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Antalyaspor's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.05 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights