Kayserispor 1-2 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 28 as Kayserispor welcome Alanyaspor to Kadir Has Şehir Stadı. Kick-off is set for Monday 7 March 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kayserispor have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
Alanyaspor — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kayserispor at 1.80 PPG versus Alanyaspor's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Kayserispor, 1 for Alanyaspor and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 9.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2021, ended 3–6 with Alanyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 9.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Kayserispor in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 59% versus Alanyaspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 52% | Alanyaspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.69 xG and Alanyaspor 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 1.155 / defence 0.990 | Alanyaspor attack 1.128 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.178. Alanyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Kayserispor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Kayserispor games / 27 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 46% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Alanyaspor 3.45. Kayserispor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kayserispor as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kayserispor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 50% | Alanyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Kadir Has Şehir Stadı • Kick-off: Monday 7 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 46% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Kayserispor 1.69 / Alanyaspor 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 1.155 / def 0.990 | Alanyaspor attack 1.128 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Alanyaspor xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 7 March 2022 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor?
Kayserispor 1 - 2 Alanyaspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 46% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Kayserispor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Alanyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Kayserispor 0W | Draws 0 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Kayserispor and Alanyaspor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kayserispor's attack rating (1.16) and Alanyaspor's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
46%
2.18
25%
4.03
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
3.01
1.32
Alanyaspor xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
18%
5.42
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
5%
18.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.32 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kayserispor come into this having played 27 games, going 10W 8D 9L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.59 PPG from 27 outings (12W 7D 8L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kayserispor on 1.41 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kayserispor's home form reads 9W 3D 1L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.31 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Kayserispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 1.62 points per game from 13 outings (6W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kayserispor are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.81 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 10W 8D 9L in their last 27 games (1.41 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 12W 7D 8L in their last 27 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 2.31 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 May 2023, when Alanyaspor won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kayserispor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kayserispor
2
Draws
6
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 2, Alanyaspor have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Alanyaspor 3-1 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 46%, Alanyaspor 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Kayserispor) and 54% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 54% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Kayserispor's recent games and 54% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alanyaspor defy the odds to beat Kayserispor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Kayserispor 1-2 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.69 xG and Alanyaspor 1.32 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.16 / defence 0.99 against Alanyaspor attack 1.13 / defence 1.23, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 46% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 29%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Alanyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 52%, Alanyaspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.41 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.