Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kayserispor's attack rating (0.86) and Alanyaspor's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
26%
3.83
27%
3.64
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.72
1.58
Alanyaspor xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
5%
18.63
15%
6.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.5 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.58 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.