Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Göztepe make the trip to to face Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 December 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kasımpaşa have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 5W 3D 2L at — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Göztepe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Göztepe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Göztepe's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Kasımpaşa, 1.00 for Göztepe — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across the last 6 meetings, Göztepe have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Kasımpaşa's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Göztepe have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Kasımpaşa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games).
Göztepe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 54% versus Göztepe 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 40% | Göztepe 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.69 xG and Göztepe 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.911 / defence 1.031 | Göztepe attack 1.187 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.183. Data: 38 Kasımpaşa games / 37 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 43% | Draw 24% | Göztepe 33%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Göztepe 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kasımpaşa 40% | Göztepe 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 43% | Draw 24% | Göztepe 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.69 / Göztepe 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.911 / def 1.031 | Göztepe attack 1.187 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Göztepe xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 6 December 2026.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 43% chance of winning, Göztepe a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Göztepe?
Record (6 meetings): Kasımpaşa 1W | Draws 1 | Göztepe 4W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Göztepe in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Göztepe (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Göztepe's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Göztepe's attack (1.19x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
43%
2.30
24%
4.26
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.14
1.45
Göztepe xG
2.30
43%
Home win
4.26
24%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
18%
5.42
Win to Nil
10%
9.80
6%
16.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.6 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.45 for Göztepe, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kasımpaşa's recent record stands at 9W 14D 14L from 37 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Göztepe, meanwhile, have gone 14W 14D 9L across 37 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Göztepe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.51 for Göztepe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kasımpaşa have managed 5W 8D 6L from 19 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Göztepe's away record stands at 6W 7D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.27 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Göztepe in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Göztepe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 9W 14D 14L in their last 37 games (1.11 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 14W 14D 9L in their last 37 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Göztepe away?
Göztepe's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.21 PPG; Göztepe away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Göztepe in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Göztepe won 5-0 on 13 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Göztepe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Kasımpaşa
1
Draws
4
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Göztepe?
From 6 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 1, Göztepe have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Göztepe 3-3 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Göztepe?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 47%, Göztepe 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Kasımpaşa and 42% for Göztepe.
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Göztepe in 37%; Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 32% of games; Göztepe in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Göztepe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 47% of Göztepe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 42% of Göztepe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Göztepe tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.