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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Göztepe make the trip to to face Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 December 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Kasımpaşa have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Kasımpaşa haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 5W 3D 2L at — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Göztepe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Göztepe haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Göztepe's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Kasımpaşa, 1.30 for Göztepe — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Across the last 6 meetings, Göztepe have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Kasımpaşa's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Göztepe have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

Kasımpaşa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Göztepe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 53% versus Göztepe 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 44% | Göztepe 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.31 xG and Göztepe 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.859 / defence 0.910 | Göztepe attack 0.928 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Kasımpaşa games / 34 Göztepe games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 42% | Draw 32% | Göztepe 25%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Göztepe 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 20% | Göztepe 50% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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