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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 22 as Kasımpaşa welcome Fatih Karagümrük to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Monday 16 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Fatih Karagümrük stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kasımpaşa at 0.60 PPG versus Fatih Karagümrük's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Kasımpaşa have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Kasımpaşa winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Kasımpaşa trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Fatih Karagümrük trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 52% versus Fatih Karagümrük 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 43% | Fatih Karagümrük 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.15 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.663 / defence 0.942 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.699 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.321. Kasımpaşa's attack strength of 0.663 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.282 — this is suppressing Kasımpaşa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Kasımpaşa games / 21 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 38% | Draw 38% | Fatih Karagümrük 24%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.63 | Draw 2.63 | Fatih Karagümrük 4.17. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 24% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Kasımpaşa 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 60%.

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