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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Kasımpaşa take on Antalyaspor.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 18 as Kasımpaşa welcome Antalyaspor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 January 2026 at 11:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 0W 4D 6L at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Antalyaspor stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Antalyaspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Kasımpaşa) versus 0.50 (Antalyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Kasımpaşa, 3 for Antalyaspor and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Antalyaspor winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Kasımpaşa trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Antalyaspor trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 64% versus Antalyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 58% | Antalyaspor 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 0.99 xG and Antalyaspor 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.802 / defence 1.051 | Antalyaspor attack 0.788 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.291. Data: 53 Kasımpaşa games / 53 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 29% | Draw 38% | Antalyaspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 3.45 | Draw 2.63 | Antalyaspor 3.03. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Kasımpaşa 70% | Antalyaspor 40%.

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