Kasımpaşa 2-0 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor meet at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 April 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Kasımpaşa's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's home record at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Trabzonspor (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.50 for Trabzonspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Kasımpaşa register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Trabzonspor in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Kasımpaşa, 2 for Trabzonspor and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 0.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Kasımpaşa half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Trabzonspor half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 62% and Trabzonspor 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 62% | Trabzonspor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 2.36 xG and Trabzonspor 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.138 / defence 1.142 | Trabzonspor attack 0.918 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.336. Trabzonspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing Kasımpaşa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Kasımpaşa games / 63 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 59% | Draw 19% | Trabzonspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 1.69 | Draw 5.26 | Trabzonspor 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Kasımpaşa (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.36 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.76 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 0.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 90% | Trabzonspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Apr 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 59% | Draw 19% | Trabzonspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 68% | xG Kasımpaşa 2.36 / Trabzonspor 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.138 / def 1.142 | Trabzonspor attack 0.918 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.36
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Trabzonspor xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 8 April 2023 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Kasımpaşa 2 - 0 Trabzonspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 59% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 22% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor?
Record (3 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 2W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 1.14x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 2.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (0.92x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
59%
1.70
19%
5.20
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.36
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.76
1.40
Trabzonspor xG
1.70
59%
Home win
5.20
19%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
9%
10.63
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
2%
48.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.36 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.40 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Kasımpaşa have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 23W 12D 28L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor's form line: 35W 17D 11L from 63 games, 1.94 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kasımpaşa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Kasımpaşa have posted 1.40 PPG from 30 outings (12W 6D 12L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 14W 7D 9L from 30 away games — 1.63 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.76 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Trabzonspor in 62%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 23W 12D 28L in their last 63 games (1.29 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 35W 17D 11L in their last 63 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.40 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Trabzonspor have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 1-5 on 1 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kasımpaşa
3
Draws
5
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Trabzonspor 2-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 77% for Kasımpaşa, 70% for Trabzonspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Kasımpaşa and 63% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Kasımpaşa's games and 70% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 63% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Trabzonspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Trabzonspor 2-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 2.36 xG and Trabzonspor 1.40 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Trabzonspor landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.14 / defence 1.14 against Trabzonspor attack 0.92 / defence 1.26, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 59% | Draw 19% | Trabzonspor 22%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 62%, Trabzonspor 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.29. Form was overturned, with Kasımpaşa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.