Kasımpaşa 0-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor meet at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kasımpaşa's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games (1.25 PPG). Last five: D W D L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Trabzonspor (all games): 3W 1D 0L across 4 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Trabzonspor are 1.25 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa in recent Süper Lig fixtures (2.50 vs 1.25). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Kasımpaşa half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
Trabzonspor half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 50% and Trabzonspor 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 25% | Trabzonspor 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.25 xG and Trabzonspor 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.109 / defence 1.141 | Trabzonspor attack 1.174 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.082. Data: 4 Kasımpaşa games / 4 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 32% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 41%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Trabzonspor 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 50% | Trabzonspor 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 32% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.25 / Trabzonspor 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.109 / def 1.141 | Trabzonspor attack 1.174 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Trabzonspor xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Kasımpaşa 0 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 32% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-W-D-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 3W-1D-0L in 4 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 1.11x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (1.17x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
32%
3.12
27%
3.75
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.70
1.45
Trabzonspor xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
8%
13.32
12%
8.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.45 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, Kasımpaşa have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 1W 2D 1L record — D-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Trabzonspor's form line: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games, 2.50 PPG, last five W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kasımpaşa.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 2.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Trabzonspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 (2.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Trabzonspor have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 1-5 on 1 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kasımpaşa
3
Draws
5
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Trabzonspor 2-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 50%, Trabzonspor 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Kasımpaşa) and 75% (Trabzonspor).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Kasımpaşa's games and 75% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 75% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Kasımpaşa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Kasımpaşa 0-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.25 xG and Trabzonspor 1.45 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kasımpaşa fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.11 / defence 1.14 against Trabzonspor attack 1.17 / defence 0.97, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 32% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 41%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 25%, Trabzonspor 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Kasımpaşa managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Trabzonspor managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.