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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor finished level at 1-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.87 xG and Trabzonspor 1.41 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Kasımpaşa fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.21 / defence 1.24 against Trabzonspor attack 0.95 / defence 0.94, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 48% | Draw 22% | Trabzonspor 29%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 65%, Trabzonspor 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Trabzonspor's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.42 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights