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Kasımpaşa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sivasspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kasımpaşa beat Sivasspor 3-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 2.25 xG and Sivasspor 1.30 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.21 / defence 1.31 against Sivasspor attack 0.84 / defence 1.17, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 59% | Draw 20% | Sivasspor 21%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 65%, Sivasspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Sivasspor's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.40 PPG, Sivasspor 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights