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Dominant Rizespor run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Kasımpaşa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rizespor beat Kasımpaşa 0-3 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.26 xG and Rizespor 1.48 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Kasımpaşa fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Rizespor outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.80 / defence 1.07 against Rizespor attack 1.10 / defence 1.13, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 29% | Draw 33% | Rizespor 39%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 58%, Rizespor 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Rizespor's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.14 PPG, Rizespor 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights